کورولیشن(Correlation)درفارکس
کورولیشن(Correlation)درفارکس
ضریب همبستگی یا کورولیشن (Correlation) یکی از اصطلاحات رایج در حوزههای مختلف بازارهای مالی است. کورولیشن در تحلیلهای آماری بهعنوان ابزاری برای تعیین انواع روابط متغیرهای کمی با یکدیگر است.
ضریب همبستگی در بازار بورس و فارکس و بسیاری دیگر از بازارهای مالی، کاربرد زیادی دارد. کورولیشن در حقیقت رابطه مستقیم یا معکوس یا حتی عدم وجود رابطه میان دو متغیر را نشان میدهد.
تفاوت یک سرمایهگذار آماتور با سرمایهگذاری حرفهای، در آشنایی با تمامی این نکات خاص بازار سرمایه است. با توجه به ضریب همبستگی، سرمایهگذار تا حد ممکن، خطای تحلیلهای خود را کم میکند و از فرصتهای سرمایهگذاری استفاده بهینه میبرد. در این مطلب، سعی میکنیم نقش ضریب همبستگی یا کورولیشن را در بازار بورس ایران و بازار فارکس توضیح دهیم.
کورولیشن(Correlation)در فارکس
مطالعه بیشتر:منظور از equity در فارکس چیست؟
اصول محاسبه کورولیشن چیست؟
اولین نکته در مورد کورولیشن، دانستن اصول اولیه این ضریب است. ضریب همبستگی یک بازه تغییر میان ۱+ تا ۱- را نشان میدهد. زمانی که یک متغیر با افزایش متغیر دیگر، افزایش پیدا کند، یا کاهش آن متغیر همراه با کاهش متغیر دیگر باشد، در این صورت ضریب همبستگی مثبت میشود. اما اگر افزایش یک متغیر با کاهش متغیر دیگر همراه باشد یا برعکس، در این صورت، ضریب همبستگی را منفی در نظر خواهند گرفت.
زمانی که دو متغیر کاملا مستقل از هم بوده و کاهش و افزایش یکی بر دیگری تاثیر نداشته باشد، ضریب همبستگی صفر است. همبستگی متغیرها چه مثبت و چه منفی، زمانی قویتر است که عدد کورولیشن به ۱- یا ۱+ نزدیکتر باشد. کورولیشن(Correlation)درفارکس
نقش ضریب همبستگی در بازار بورس
تا اینجا در مورد مفهوم ضریب همبستگی و اصول آن گفتیم. حالا میخواهیم بدانیم که در بازار بورس چگونه ضریب همبستگی برای پوشش ریسک معامله بهکمک سرمایهگذار خواهد آمد. زمانی که ارزش سهام یک شرکت با سهام چند شرکت دیگر بهصورت هماهنگ بالا یا پایین برود، ضریب همبستگی مثبت است. یعنی میزان سود یا ضرر این شرکتها با هم یکسان است. اما وقتی بالا رفتن ارزش سهام شرکتی همزمان با پایین آمدن سهام شرکتهای دیگر باشد، در این صورت ضریب همبستگی منفی است.
اگر هم شرکتها هیچ ارتباطی با هم نداشته و رشد و افت ارزش سهام آنها تاثیری بر سهام یکدیگر نداشته باشند، ضریب همبستگی صفر خواهد بود. در بازار بورس بارها دیدهایم که رشد سهام یک شرکت بهصورت اتوماتیک وار، باعث رشد سهام شرکتهای دیگر شده است. این موضوع مفهوم کورولیشن و نقش مهم آن را در بازار بورس نشان میدهد. سرمایهگذار حرفهای، زمانی که در تحلیل تکنیکال یا تحلیل بنیادی، الگوها و نمودارهای صحیح رسم میکند، حتما در انتخاب سهام مورد نظر خود، ضریب همبستگی را در نظر میگیرد تا بیشترین میزان سود و کمترین میزان ریسک را تجربه کند.

مطالعه بیشتر: اتریوم Ethereum چیست ؟
کورولیشن(Correlation)در فارکس
نقش کورولیشن در بازار فارکس
مفاهیم اصلی بازارهای مالی و سرمایه، در تمامی این بازارها اعم از بورس، فارکس یا ارز دیجیتال، تقریبا ثابت است. کورولیشن در بازار فارکس نیز نقش بسیار مهمی را ایفا میکند. در این بازار، ارزهای هر کشور، بازیگران اصلی بازار هستند. بههمین دلیل قدرت اقتصادی آن کشور، صادرات و واردات، شرایط سیاسی و اجتماعی و روابط آن با دیگر کشورها، نقشی تعیین کننده در ارزش پول آن کشور دارد. در هنگام خرید جفت ارزها در بازار فارکس، باید توجه کرد که جهت حرکت کدام دو ارز با یکدیگر همسو است
. اصولا کشورهایی که روابط اقتصادی خوبی با یکدیگر دارند، ضریب همبستگی ارزهای آنها هم قویتر است. برای مثال جفت ارزهای دلار آمریکا و یورو، یا دلار آمریکا و پوند انگلستان، ضریب همبستگی قوی دارند چون کشورهای صاحب این ارزها، روابط بسیار نزدیک اقتصادی و سیاسی با هم دارند. بههمین دلیل سرمایهگذاری بر روی این جفت ارزها، سودآوری خوبی دارد. اگر بههر دلیلی بازار فارکس، حرکتی غیرمنتظره داشته باشد، یا روابط کشورها به مشکل برخورد کند، ریسک معامله بالا میرود.
مطالعه بیشتر: کندل چیست؟

پایانبندی
مفهوم ضریب همبستگی بسیار گستردهتر از مطلبی است که به اختصار بیان کردیم و برای آموزش این ضریب، همانند دیگر ابزارهای بازار بورس و سرمایه، باید در دورههای مختلف آموزشی شرکت کرد. آنچه مسلم است، یک سرمایهگذار حرفهای، باید بینش خوبی نسبت به مسائل سیاسی و اقتصادی و روابط کشورها داشته باشد. همانطور که خواندیم، حتی میزان صادرات میان دو کشور، تا حد زیادی بر روی ارزش پول آن کشور تاثیر گذاشته و میزان ضریب همبستگی یا کورولیشن را کم یا زیاد خواهد کرد. توجه به این نکات در هنگام تحلیل بازار بورس و فارکس، کمک میکند که با حداقل ضرر، و با پوشش ریسکهای احتمالی، به سود خوبی دست پیدا کنید.
برای شروع آموزش بازارهای مالی از صفرتاصد اینجا کلیک کنید
کورولیشن(Correlation)در فارکس
مطالب زیر را حتما مطالعه کنید
مدیریت سرمایه چیست؟
مدیریت سرمایه چیست؟
بک تست برای متاتریدر۴
ژورنال معاملاتی استاد رئیسی
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