عوامل موثر بر بازار فارکس
باتوجه به مطالب مرور شده، بازار فارکس را می توان بازار ارزها دانست. دولت ها و بانک های مرکزی زیادی بر این بازار متمرکز هستند. افزایش یا کاهش اندک در نرخ ارز، سبب بهم ریختگی در اقتصادها شده و موجب شورش مردم می شود. بنابراین، این بازار اهمیت بسیار زیادی برای دولت ها دارد.
همچنین، بازار فارکس در تجارت بین المللی نقش بسیار زیادی دارد. زمانی را درنظر بگیرید که رئیس جمهور آمریکا، دونالد ترامپ اعلام کرد برابر یورو به دلار بالا است. وی اعلام کرد که به منظور بهبود روابط باید این عدد کاهش یابد. پس از این اظهار نظر، بازار شکل نزولی به خود گرفته و با کاهش قیمت یورو مواجه شد.
بازار فارکس، مستقیما وابسته به اقتصاد و کامروایی یک ملت است. بنابراین دولت ها توجه ویژه ای به این بازار دارند.
عامل اول: سیاست های اقتصاد کلان دولت ها
بزرگترین و تاثیرگذارترین عامل بر بازار فارکس، سیاست های اقتصاد کلان دولت ها است. اقتصاد کلان، اقتصاد تمام کشورها را شامل می شود.
این اقتصاد، مسائل مهمی مانند نرخ بهره، نرخ تورم، بیکاری، سیاست های مالی و پولی را درنظر دارد. تمام بخش های اقتصاد کلان تاثیر مستقیمی بر بازار فارکس دارند. این بخش ها، تعیین کننده نرخ برابری ارزها هستند.
سال 2009 را درنظر بگیرید که رکود بازارهای مالی در آن سال رخ داد. بعد از این رکود و بحران جهانی، به تصمیم بانگ مرکزی آمریکا، نرخ بهره در کمترین حد ممکن یعنی 0.25٪ نگه داشته شد. پس از این تصمیم گیری توسط دولت آمریکا، نرخ سایر ارزها و طلا در برابر دلار رشد کرد. درنتیجه، دلار ضعیف شد.
عامل دوم: نرخ بهره و اهمیت آن
نرخ بهره همان قیمت پول است. مثلا فرض کنید فردی به شما 1000 دلار پول قرض بدهد. شما متعهد می شوید که در سال آینده همین موقع، پول آن شخص را بعلاوه ی بهره آن پرداخت نمایید. فرض کنید اگر بهره به 0.25٪ برسد، در سال آینده باید 1000 دلار به علاوه ی 2.5 دلار بابت بهره به او پرداخت کنید.
نرخ بهره اهمیت زیادی دارد. زیرا با کاهش نرخ بهره، اغلب افراد تمایل دارند از بانک وام دریافت کنند. آنها این وام را در کسب و کارها سرمایه گذاری می کنند. این شرایط که افراد بتوانند با نرخ اندک از بانک مرکزی وام دریافت کرده و کسب و کار راه اندازی کرده و پیشرفت کنند، خیلی عالی است.
اما با افزایش نرخ بهره، افرادی که برای راه اندازی کسب و کارشان به سرمایه نیاز دارند، قادر به گرفتن وام از بانک نیستند. زیرا باید بیش از نرخ بهره سود بدست آورند.
مثلا فرض کنید 1 میلیون دلار با نرخ بهره 20٪ سالیانه از بانک وام دریافت کنیم. در این سال اگر به درآمد 200 هزار دلار رسیده باشیم، تنها بهره قرض خود را پرداخت کرده و هیچ سودی بدست نیاوردیم. باید 30 الی 40٪ در کسب و کار خود سود کسب کنیم تا بتوانیم آن را ادامه دهیم. یافتن چنین کسب و کار با این ویژگی کاری مشکل است. بنابراین افراد تمایلی به دریافت وام نداشته و کسب و کارها رشد نمی کنند. درنتیجه، یکی از مهم ترین بخش های اقتصادی در هر کشور نرخ بهره است. کنترل و تنظیم نرخ بهره بسیارمهم بوده و تاثیر مستقیمی بر نرخ ارز کل کشور دارد.
مفهوم نرخ تورم
این نرخ از شاخصی به نام شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده حاصل می شود. درمورد مفهوم نرخ تورم، مثال زیر را درنظر بگیرید.
فرض کنید در زندگی روزمره، برخی کالاها مانند گوشت، میوه یا انرژی مانند گاز، برق و انرژی، مسکن، پوشاک و غیره را مصرف می کنیم. این ها کالاهای ضروری هستند. جمع آوری تمام این نیازها در یک سبد جمع آوری کرده و سبدی می سازیم که قیمت تمامی اینها را نشان می دهد. با ساخت این سبد، درواقع شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده را درست کرده ایم.
این شاخص بیانگر این است که سال گذشته عدد آن 120 بوده و امسال این عدد به 130 افزایش یافته است. با افزایش این شاخص، یعنی تورم به وجود آمده است. یعنی امسال افراد باید برای نیازهای روزمره خود، پول بیشتری بپردازند.
نرخ تورم نه باید خیلی زیاد باشد و نه باید خیلی کم باشد. درصورت افزایش تورم، زندگی برای مردم بسیار سخت می شود. در چنین موقعیتی، آنها درمورد آینده خود و قیمت ها اطمینان ندارند. اگر تورم کاهش یابد، نشانگر رکود است. زیرا دراین حالت، مردم خرید نمی کنند و درنتیجه قیمت ها رشد نمی کنند. بنابراین تورم نیز شاخص مهم است.
اثرات افزایش یا کاهش تورم
اگر در یک کشور، تورم بیش از حد افزایش یابد، موجب ضعیف شدن ارز آن کشور می شود. یعنی افراد برای اینکه قادر به خرید باشند، باید پول بیشتری پرداخت کنند. درنتیجه ارز ضعیف تر می شود. در اغلب کشورهای بزرگ، با مشاهده افزایش تورم، نرخ بهره را افزایش می دهند. با این کار قادر به کنترل نرخ تورم خواهند بود.
در برخی مواقع، تورم به دلیل درآمد بالای مردم است. در این حالت وضعیت اقتصادی خوبی ایجاد می شود و نتیجه آن مثبت است. مثلا فرض کنید نرخ بیکاری در کشور کاهش یابد، مردم قادرند نیازهای خود را تامین کنند. درآمد افراد افزایش می یابد و می توانند کالاهای بیشتری خریداری کنند. در این حالت تقاضا بیشتر شده و قیمت ها افزایش می یابد.
اگر تورم به دلایلی از جمله قحطی، کمبود یا نبود کالا ایجاد شود، کمکی به اقتصاد نخواهد شد. این وضعیت نیز مخرب است. مثلا در دهه 1970 افرایش قیمت نفت، سبب شده بود تورم در آمریکا غیرقابل تحمل شود. این شرایط بسیارسخت بود.
اما در سال های 2015 تا 2019 شاهد نرخ تورم 2٪ بود که تورم خوب و قابل قبولی بود. این تورم خوب به دلیل رشد اقتصادی خوب و کاهش نرخ بیکاری رخ داد. بنابراین، از مهمترین محرکه های اقتصاد کلان در بازار فارکس، می توان نرخ تورم و نرخ بهره را نام برد.
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