فاندامنتال چیست؟
فاندامنتال چیست؟
بسیاری از افراد در کنار آموزش تحلیل تکنیکال در بازارهای مالی، تحلیل فاندامنتان و یا همان تحلیل بنیادی را هم مبنای تصمیم گیری های خودشون قرار می دهند، مخصوصا زمانی که قصد سرمایه گذاری های بلند مدت تری را داشته باشند. آموزش تحلیل فاندامنتال یکی از ضروریات وارد شدن به بازارهای مالی است و هر فردی باید در مورد آینده سهام، ارز دیجیتال و یا هر دارایی دیگری که روی آن سرمایه گذاری می کند، اطلاعات کافی را داشته باشد و بسنجد که سرمایه گذاری میان مدت و بلند مدت او، چه میزان سوددهی را به همراه خواهد داشت و سپس اقدام به سرمایه گذاری نماید. این سنجیدن آینده و ارزش گذاری دارایی ها به وسیله تحلیل فاندامنتال امکان پذیر خواهد بود.
پس ما در این مقاله به شما یاد خواهیم داد که چطور یک دارایی (سهم) را با استفاده از قوانین تحلیل بنیادی (فاندامنتال) بررسی کنید و نحوه تصمیم گیری نهایی آن را هم در ادامه به شما عزیزان آموزش خواهیم داد. بنابراین اگر حتی در یک بازار مالی فعالیت دارید و یا دوست دارید در بازارهای مالی مانند بازار بورس اوراق بهادار، ارزهای دیجیتال، فارکس و … اقدام به سرمایه گذاری کنید، این مقاله راه و چاه را به شما عزیزان آموزش خواهد داد.
تحلیل فاندامنتال
تحلیل فاندامنتال یا همان Fundamental Analysis در کنار تحلیل تکنیکال از روش های بسیار مهم و پایه ای برای پیش بینی قیمت سهام و اوراق بهادار به حساب می آید که برای استفاده سرمایه گذاران بازارهای مالی از جمله بورس به وجود آمده است.
از دیگر نکاتی که باید در خصوص با تحلیل فاندامنتال به آن توجه داشته باشید این است که مبانی تحلیل فاندامنتال چیست . در پاسخ به این سوال باید عنوان کرد که مبانی تحلیل فاندامنتال گزارش سالانه حسابرسی شده شرکت ها خواهد بود. که این گزارش سالانه شامل مواردی مانند.
تزار نامه، موارد مربوط به مدیریت شرکت، میزان سود و زیان، رقبای شرکت، نگرشی که در خصوص با آینده شرکت وجود دارد. میزان رشدی که شرکت می تواند داشته باشد و در نهایت بررسی اهداف و راهکارهای تجاری شرکت که در آینده قرار است پیش گرفته شود.
در ادامه باید به این موضوع اشاره داشته باشم که تحلیل فاندامنتال یا همان تحلیل بنیادی بر اساس این مسئله محاسبه می گردد. که شرکت ها چه میزان ثبات و البته توانایی در درآمد زایی و به خصوص سودسازی برای سهامداران را دارند. و این که قیمت سهام شرکت از میزان ترازنامه شرکت بیشتر و یا کم تر خواهد بود. در واقع شما می توانید با استفاده از تحلیل فاندامنتال از ارزش واقعی سهام شرکت ها اطلاع یابید و همین طور وضعیت شرکت را مورد بررسی قرار دهید.
که در واقع باید وضعیت شرکت را از جنبه های گوناگونی مورد بررسی قرار دهید که شامل ۱۰ مرحله کلی خواهد بود که در ادامه هر ۱۰ مورد را به همراه توضیحات آن ها برای شما عزیزان بیان خواهیم کرد.
تحلیل فاندامنتال چیست؟
تحلیل فاندامنتال روشی در راستای ارزیابی اوراق بهادار است که شامل اندازه گیری ارزش ذاتی با توجه به تمامی عوامل مربوط به اقتصاد، مالی و دیگر عوامل کمی و کیفی محاسبه می شود.
یک تحلیل گر فاندامنتال در تلاش است تا هر عاملی را که می تواند بر ارزش اوراق بهادار موثر باشد را مورد بررسی خود قرار دهد، مواردی مانند نیروهای اقتصاد کلان و عوامل خاص شرکت ها مانند وضعیت مالی و مدیریت شرکت.
تحلیل بنیادی یعنی سرمایه گذار سوددهی آینده یک شرکت را طبق محیط کسب و کار و عملکرد مالی آن مورد تجزیه و تحلیل خود قرار دهد.
تحلیل بنیادی یا همان تحلیل فاندامنتال به همان صورت که از نامش مشخص است، به بررسی عواملی که به صورت بنیادی بر قیمت آنچه که شما خرید و فروش یا به اصطلاح ترید می کنید، اثر می گذارند، می پردازد. آنچه در بازار های مالی مانند بورس یا بازار ارزهای دیجیتال می توان معامله کرد بسیار زیاد است و از نظر ماهیت با هم متفاوتند. در خصص با ارزهای دیجیتال، نمی توان عوامل بنیادی یا همان فاندامنتال تاثیر گذار بر قیمت آن ها را به سادگی و با یک روش یکسان تجزیه و تحلیل کرد.
پس نتیجه این است که تحلیل فاندامنتال باید برای هر چیزی که قصد دارید ترید کنید به صورت خاص تحقیق و بررسی شود. وقتی که تحلیل بنیادی در بازارهای فیوچر و فارکس مورد استفاده قرار می گیرد. تمرکز اصلی بر شرایط اقتصادی، نرخ بهره، تولید، سودآوری و مدیریت خواهد بود ولی با این که ماهیت کلی تحلیل فاندامنتال برای تمامی بازارهای مالی یکسان است. اما شاید شرایطی که برای تحلیل بازاری مانند فارکس ذکر کردیم با شرایطی که باید در سهام های بنیادی در نظر داشت متفاوت باشد. به عنوان مثال ما در بورس نسبت P/E را به عنوان یک عامل از ۱۰ عامل موثر در نظر می گیریم ولی در بازار ارزهای دیجیتال این مورد را نخواهیم داشت ولی حجم و ابعاد کلی معاملات در ارزهای دیجیتال اهمیت به مراتب بیش تری خواهد داشت.
سازوکار تحلیل فاندامنتال
کیمیسیون اوراق بهادار و بورس معمولا به منظور محاسبه دقیق دارایی های یک شرکت، اطلاعاتی را در اختیار سهامداران قرار می دهد و تحلیل گران بنیادی هم این اطلاعات که در دسترس عموم قرار دارد را برای بررسی های خود استفاده می کنند. تحلیل گران بنیادی بر این باورند که اصول بنیادی یک شرکت در واقع محرک اصلی تحرکات قیمت سهام آن در یک بازه زمانی بلند مدت محسوب می شود.
هر چند نوسانات کوتاه مدت بازار بر روی قیمت فوری یک سهام موثر است، ولی خود بازار در آینده، آن سهام را به صورت منطقی و عادلانه قیمت گذاری خواهد کرد. در بعضی مواقع بازار یک سهام بیشتر یا کم تر از حد واقعی قیمت گذاری می شود، ولی بررسی های فاندامنتال یک ارزیابی منصفانه از ارزش سهام یک شرکت را ارائه خواهد کرد تا سرمایه گذار ارزش واقعی سهام را به عنوان یک عامل مهم در معامله در نظر داشته باشد.
عوامل موثر در تحلیل فاندامنتال
پس از این که مبانی کلی تحلیل فاندامنتال را بررسی کردیم و فهمیدیم که تحلیل فاندامنتان یا همان بنیادی چیست، نوبت به این می رسد که عواملی که می توانند در تحلیل فاندامنتال موثر واقع شوند را مورد بررسی قرار دهیم که به صورت کلی این عوامل به شرح زیر خواهند بود :
- در نظر داشتن وضعیت کلی اقتصاد کشور
- عملکرد صنعیتِ شرکت مورد نظر
- رشد سالانه سهام و میزان رشدی که سهام در طی ۳ ماه اخیر داشته
- میزان درآمدی که به ازای هر سهم حاصل شده
- نسبت سود سهام به سرمایه کل
- نسبت ارزش سهم به درآمد یا همان نسبت P به E
- میزان نقدینگی (میزان نقدینگی مجموع پول و شبه پول است)
- میزان بدهی و نسبت بدهی به دارایی
- درآمد و میزان سرمایه شرکت
- میزان ارزش عملکرد شرکت
مولفه های تجزیه و تحلیل فاندامنتال
مولفه های مختلفی مانند گزارش درآمد، استراتژی یا مدل کسب و کار، عوامل شتاب دهنده، عوامل مالی مثل دارایی و بدهی، تعهدات و تامین مالی، تسهیلات اعتباری، شایعات و اخبار مربوط به یک شرکت به وسیله تجزیه و تحلیل فاندامنتال مورد بررسی قرار می گیرند. در کنار این تحقیقات تکمیلی بر روی قسمت ها و شرکای گوناگون یک شرکت هم به وسیله همین روش تحلیلی بررسی می شود.
به عنوان مثال هر گونه تغییر در قسمت مدیریتی یا هیئت مدیره را می توان به عنوان یکی از مولفه های تحلیل فاندامنتال به حساب آورد که اهمیت خاص خود را خواهد داشت.
البته ذکر این نکته الزامیست که اجرای چنین تحلیل فاندامنتال همه جانبه ای برای یک سرمایه گذار بسیار زمان گیر و خسته کننده خواهد بود که در قسمت محدودیت های تحلیل فاندامنتال که بخش انتهای مقاله است، توضیحات کاملی در این خصوص خواهیم داد.
استراتژی معاملاتی با تحلیل بنیادی (فاندامنتال)
۱) بررسی وضعیت اقتصاد کلی کشور
جالب است بدانید که وضعیت اقتصادی کشور می تواند روی بازار بورس هم مانند دیگر بازارها موثر باشد، از همین روی احتیاج است که ابتدا وضعیت اقتصاد کلی کشور در تحلیل فاندامنتال یا تحلیل بنیادی لحاظ شود. شایان ذکر است که در بررسی وضعیت اقتصاد کلی کشور عواملی مانند؛ این که آیا شرایط کلی کشور به منظور سرمایه گذاری در بازار بورس مناسب است، نرخ های بهره در حال افزایش یا کاهش است، آیا تورم تاثیری دارد، آیا تراز تجاری کشور مطلوب است و آیا عرضه پول به صورت انبساطی صورت می پذیرد یا به شکل انقباضی می باشد. تحلیل گران این موارد را باید به دقت در نظر داشته باشند و در نظر بگیرند که شرایط اقتصادی کشور چقدر روی وضعیت اقتصادی شرکت های مد نظر اثر خواهد گذاشت.
۲) بررسی صنعت شرکت مربوطه
در مرحله دوم برای بررسی شرکت ها در تحلیل فاندامنتال شما باید وضعیت صنعت شرکتی که قصد دارید سهام آن را بخرید را مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار دهید.
نکته ای که در این خصوص قابل ذکر است این است که شرکتی که بنا دارید سهام آن را بخرید. از وضعیت صنعت خوبی برخوردار باشد، بخاطر این که در غیر این صورت شما قادر نخواهید بود روی سهام این شرکت حساب بار کنید، زیرا حتی چنانچه بهترین سهام را هم خریداری کنید، نمی تواند بازده مناسبی برای شما به ارمغان بیاورد.
در این باره جمله معروفی در بازار بورس وجود دارد که می گوید سهام ضعیف در صنعت قوی بهتر از سهام قوی در صنعت ضعیف است.
۳) تجزیه و تحلیل شرکت
پس از این که شما وضعیت اقتصاد کشور و همچنین صنعت شرکتی که قصد دارید سهام آن را خریداری کنید را مورد بررسی قرار دادید نوبت به بررسی شرکتی می رسد که قصد دارید در آن سرمایه گذاری نمایید.
در نظر داشته باشید که در این مرحله از تجزیه و تحلیل شرکت ها که در تحلیل فاندامنتال صورت می پذیرد، صورت های مالی شرکت را به دقت بررسی کنید تا بتوانید به نسبت مالی سودمندی آن شرکت در بازه های زمانی مختلف دسترسی داشته باشید.
۴) بررسی حاشیه سود خالص
در گام چهارم نوبت به بررسی حاشیه سود خاصل شرکت بررسی شده خواهد رسید. حاشیه سود خالص شرکت در واقع یکی از نسبت های سودآوری است که به وسیله تقسیم کردن سود خالص به کل فروش محاسبه می شود. این نسبت نشان دهنده این است که از یک تومان فروش شرکت، چه مقدار آن به سود خالص تبدیل شده است. برای مثال، حاشیه سود خالص ۳۰ درصد بیانگر این است که از یک تومان فروش محصولات شرکت، ۳ ریال سودخالص کسب شده است.
۵) بررسی نسبت P/E
نسبت P/E یا همان نسبت قیمت سهام به عایدی هر سهم، به وسیله تقسیم کردن قیمت جاری سهام به عایدی هر سهم که همان EPS است، در سال اخیر حاصل می شود. این نسبت بیانگر این است که سرمایه گذار برای خریدن یک تومان از عواید شرکت، چقدر باید پرداخت نمایید. برای مثال، چنانچه قیمت جاری سهام، ۲۰ تومان و عایدی هر سهم در سال اخیر، ۲ تومان باشد، آنگاه نسبت P/E، ۱۰ حاصل خواهد شد. به بیان دیگر، به منظور خرید یکت ومان از عواید شرکت، باید ۱۰ تومان پرداخت کنیم.
البته در نظر داشته باشید که انتظارت سرمایه گذاران از عملکرد آتی شرکت، نقش حائز اهمیتی در تعیین نسبت جاری P/E خواهد داشت. نکته طلایی و رویکرد مرسوم در تحلیل های مالی این است که نسبت های P/E شرکت های موجود در یک صنعت را با هم دیگر مورد قیاس قرار دهیم . چنانچه تمام شرایط دیگر یکسان باشد، شرکتی که P/E آن کم تر است، ارزش به مراتب بالاتری برای خرید خواهد داشت.
۶) بررسی ارزش دفتری هر سهم
ارزش دفتری هر سهم شرکت، یکی از نسبت های قیمتی است که از تقسیم کردن کل دارایی های خالص شرکت به کل سهام موجود آن حاصل می شود. ارزش دفتری هر سهم می تواند در تعیین این موضوع کمک کند که آیا سهام شرکت، کمتر یا بیشتر از حد قیمت گذاری شده است. در حقیقت چنانچه سهامی به قیمتی بسیار کم تر از ارزش دفتری آن فروخته شود، می تواند نشان دهنده این باشد که این سهام، کمتر از ارزش واقعی خود، قیمت گذاری شده است.
۷) تجزیه و تحلیل نسبت جاری
نسبت جاری، یکی از نسبت های نقدینگی محسوب می شود که از تقسیم دارایی های جاری به بدهی های جاری شرکت حاصل می شود. نسبت جاری در واقع توانایی شرکت را در راستای پرداخت بدهی ها و تعهدات جاری آن نشان خواهد داد. جالب توجه است بدانید که هر اندازه نسبت جاری بالاتر باشد، قدرت نقدینگی آن نیز به مراتب بیش تر خواهد بود. برای مثال، چنانچه این نسبت ۳ باشد، نشان دهنده آن است که دارایی های جاری شرکت، برای پرداخت ۳ برابر بدهی های جاری آن، کفایت می کند.
۸) بررسی نسبت بدهی
نسبت بدهی شرکت، یکی از نسبت های اهرمی به شمار می رود که از تقسیم کل بدهی ها به کل دارایی های شرکت به دست خواهد آمد. نسبت بدهی بیانگر این است که کلدارایی های شرکت تا چه اندازه ای به وسیله بدهی ها تأمین شده است. برای مثال، چنانچه نسبت بدهی ۴۰ درصد باشد، نشان دهنده این موضوع است که ۴۰ درصد از دارایی های شرکت به وسیله ایجاد بدهی یا قرض گرفتن وجوه تأمین شده است. در حقیقت می توان این طور گفت که بدهی ها مثل تیغ دولبه عمل می کند.
اگر شرایط کلی اقتصاد نامناسب و روند حرکت نرخ های بهره، افزایشی باشد، آنگاه شرکت هایی که نسبت بدهی بالایی دارند. با مشکلات مالی بسیار روبرو خواهند شد، ولی چنانچه شرایط اقتصادی مناسب باشد، بدهی می تواند به وسیله تأمین مالی کردن رشد شرکت با هزینه های پایین تر، سودآوری را بیشتر کند.
۹) بررسی گردش موجودی ها
گفتنی است که گردش موجودی های شرکت، یکی از نسبت های کارایی به حساب می آید که از تقسیم قیمت تمام شده کالای فروش رفته به موجودی ها به دست می آید. نسبت گردش موجودی ها در واقع کارایی شرکت را در مدیریت موجودی ها نمایان خواهد ساخت. این کارایی، به وسیله محاسبه تعداد دفعات گردش موجودی ها در طول سال محاسبه می شود. این دسته از نسبت ها، وابستگی شدیدی به نوع صنعت خواهند داشت. برای مثال، گردش موجودی ها در فروشگاه های زنجیره ای بالاتر از صنایع تولید کننده هواپیما خواهد بود.
۱۰) بررسی ارزشیابی قیمت سهام و روند بلند مدت
تحلیلگر فاندامنتال، بعد از مطالعه و تعیین شرایط اقتصاد ملی، وضعیت صنعت و در نهایت شرکت، باید این مورد را در نظر داشته باشد که آیا قیمت سهام شرکت به درستی تعیین شده است یا خیر. برای تعیین قیمت سهام، الگوهای مختلف ارزشیابی تهیه و تدوین شده است. تحلیل های فاندامنتال برای انجام سرمایه گذاری های بلند مدت طبق روندهای بلند مدت کارایی مناسبی به همراه خواهد داشت.
محدودیت های تحلیل فاندامنتال
- زمان بر بودن فرآیند تحلیل بنیادی : تحلیل بنیادین در کنار این موضوع که می تواند بینشی صحیح از موقعیت صنایع و شرکت ها به ما بدهد، به همان اندازه هم زمان بر و خسته کننده است. مدل های زمان گیر اغلب می تواند منجر به ارزش گذاری هایی شود که با جهت گیری عمومی قیمت فعلی در بازار سهام یکسان نباشد.
- شخصیت تحلیل گر و جهت گیری : تعداد زیادی از داده هایی که در پروسه تحلیل موثر هستند، طبق صورت مالی است که خود شرکت در اختیار سهامداران قرار می دهد. در هر شرکتی قسمتی مربوط به ارتباط با سهامداران وجود دارد که وظیفه اصلی آن ها، ارائه صورت های مالی برای سهامداران خواهد بود.
- شاخصه های صنعت/شرکت : روش های ارزش گذاری با توجه به گروه های گوناگون صنعتی و شرایط ویژه هر شرکت، با دیگری فرق هایی دارد، پس برای صنایع و شرکت های متفاوت، شیوه های گوناگونی مورد استفاده قرار می گیرد. این فرآیند می تواند زمان بر باشد و نیاز به انجام تحقیقات گوناگونی خواهد داشت.
- ذهنیت های فردی : ارزیابی ارزش ذاتی یک سهم به فرضیات ویژه ای بستگی دارد که در مدل های ارزش گذاری مورد استفاده قرار خواهد گرفت، لذا هرگونه تغییر در رشد و یا ضرایب مفروض می تواند تغییر زیادی در ارزش گذاری نهایی اعمال نماید و هر تحلیل گر با استفاده از ضرایب و مفروضات خاصی، ارزش ذاتی خاصی را به دست خواهد آورد که این می تواند با نظر تحلیل گران دیگر که از ضرایب و مفروضات دیگری استفاده کرده است، فرق کند.
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